The Polls in the Member States

Austria

According to the polls in May, the conservative party led by Chancellor Sebastian Kurz is due to come out ahead with around 30% of the vote. The Austrian Social Democratic Party led by Andreas Schieder is slightly up in comparison with the April polls with 26 to 27% of the voting intentions. The polls forecast the far right with 23 to 25% of the vote. Finally the Greens and the Liberals of NEOS are due to win between 7 and 10% of the vote.

Unique Research  for Profil

OGM for the Kurier

Research Affairs for TZ

Belgium

According to the most recent poll published by Le Soir-RTL-VTM and Het Laatste Nieuws on 18th May in Wallonia, the Socialist Party (PS) is said to be in the lead, followed by the Reform Movement (MR) and Ecolo. In Brussels Ecolo is said to be winning hands down with 22% of the vote ahead of the PS and MR. In Flanders the Neo-Flemish Alliance (N-VA) is due to win 28% of the vote, the Flemish Christian-Democrats are due to win around 18% and the Vlaams Belang, the Flemish far right is credited with 15%.

Bulgaria

Having been declared beaten at the beginning of May, the party in office, the GERB led by Boyko Borissov is credited with 31% of the vote. The Bulgarian Socialist Party, in the opposition has fallen sharply in the voting intentions to lie at 26.6% to 30.4% of the vote.  The liberals of the Movement of Law and Freedom have risen by one point with between 12.8% to 13.9%. Finally, three parties are vying for fourth place with a slight lead taken by the nationalists of VMRO (6%), the centre-right coalition Democratic Bulgaria  (4.2%) and the populists of Wolya (4.8%).

Alfa Research Poll

Trend Poll

Chasa 24 Poll

Croatia

According to the Promocija Plus Poll for HRT undertaken between 13th and 18th May the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) is due to come out ahead in the elections with 24.5% of the vote. The Social Democratic Party (SDP) is due to come second with 16.4%. The populist party Human Shield is due to win 7.4% of the vote. The Amsterdam Coalition, which rallies the liberal parties affiliated to the ALDE is credited with 6.9% of the vote, the Bridge of Independent Lists, 6.7%.

Cyprus

According to the latest polls published in April, the Democratic Assembly (DISY) is forecast to come out ahead with between 28 to 35.6% in voting intentions. The Progressive Workers’ Party (AKEL) follows with between 23 to 26% of the vote. The Democratic Party (DIKO) is due to come third with between 13.5 and 16% of the voting intentions. The National People’s Front (ELAM) is due to win between 6.5 and 9% of the vote. And the Democratic Social Movement (EDEK) is credited with between 6.5% and 7.6% of the vote.

Poll by CYMAR for ANT1

Poll by Cmrc Cypronetwork

Poll by Prime Consulting

Poll by Symmetron

Poll by IMR

Czech Republic

According to a poll by STEM/MARK and the CVVM, published on 19th April, ANO is due to win the European élections with 28% of the vote. The Civic Democratic Party (ODS) is due to come second with 12% of the vote, followed by the Pirate Party (10.5%) and the Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (10%). The Social-Democrats of the CSSD are credited with 8.5% of the voting intentions. The SPD (Freedom and Direct Democracy), the STAN/TOP09 coalition, the Greens and the Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL) are due to win around 5% of the vote each.

Denmark

According to the most  recent poll, the Social Democratic Party is due to come out ahead with 27.4% of the voting intentions. The Liberal Party of Denmark (V) is due to win 19.8% of the vote, the Danish People’s Party (DF), 11.9%, the People’s Socialist Party (SF) 8.5% and the Danish Social Liberal Party (Radikale B) 8.3% of the vote. The People’s Movement against the European Union is credited with 6.9% of the voting intentions, the Unity List-Red/Green 6.4% and the People’s Conservative Party (KD) 4.1%.

Poll by Epinions

Poll by Borsen

Estonia

According to a Nordstatt Poll ordered by the Institute for Social Research on 14th May the Reform Party is due to come out ahead with 22% of the vote followed by the Social Democratic Party with 20.6% and the Centre Party in third place with between 19.2% and 19.8%. The conservative party EKRE is credited with 12.3/12.4% of the vote. The Pro-Patria Union and Res Publica are due to win 8.9% and 9.4% of the vote. However another Nordstatt Poll ordered by the same institute on 20th May indicates that the Social Democratic Party will come out ahead with 22.5% of the vote, running neck and neck with the Reform Party (21.3%).

Finland

According to a poll by Taloustutkimus for the newspaper Yle, published on 10th May the True Finns (PS) are due to come out ahead with 18.8% of the vote. They are followed closely by the Social Democratic Party of Finland (SDP) credited with 17.8% of the vote. Third place is due to be taken by the National Coalition Party (KOK) with 16.9% of the vote. The Centre Party (KESK) and the Green League (VIHR) are running equal on 13.3% of the vote whilst the Left Alliance (VAS) is due to win 8% of the vote. Finally the Swedish People’s Party of Finland (RKP) and the Christian-Democratic Party (KD) are due to win around 4% of the vote.

France

According to the most recent polls undertaken on 14th and 19th May, the National Rally (RN) is said to lead with between 23.5% and 24% in the voting intentions, followed closely by the République en Marche (LREM) with around 22.5% and 23%. The Republicans (LR), Europe Ecologie/Les Verts  (EELV) and France Insoumise (LFI) are credited with 13.5%, between 7% and 8.5% , then 8% and 10%. Finally Place Publique/Socialist Party (PS)/Nouvelle Donne (ND) are due to win between 5% and 6% each.

Sondage Harris Interractive  19th May for TF1, LCI, RTL, Le Figaro

Sondage Ipsos on 14/17 May for Le Monde, Cevipof and the Fondation Jean Jaurès.

Sondage Ifop  14/17 May for Paris Match, CNews and Sud Radio.

Germany

According to the most recent polls, the CDU-CSU led by Manfred Weber is expected to win  29% of the vote. Ska Keller’s Greens are forecast to be slightly ahead in second place with around 18% of the vote, whilst the SPD has declined with a forecast of 15/16% of the vote. The Alternative for Germany is due to win 12% of the vote. Finally Die Linke (The Left) has risen in terms of voting intentions to lie equal with the Liberals (FDP) with respectively 7.2% and 6.3/8% of the vote.

INSA/Bild Poll

Online-Meinungsforschungsinstituts Civey Poll for the Spiegel Online

Greece

According to the most recent polls in May, New Democracy is due to come out ahead with between 26.4% and 30.3% in the voting intentions. The radical left coalition SYRIZA is due to win between 20.8% and 23.6% of the vote, then the Movement for Change with 5%/6.2%. Finally, the KKE is wavering between 3.9% and 4.4% of the vote followed by Golden Dawn (between 4.3%% and 5%).

Metron Analysis Poll for the newspaper “To Vima” published on 19th May

Alco Poll for Open, published on 20th May

Hungary

The coalition in office in Hungary led by Viktor Orban’s Fidesz is due to take an easy lead with around 55% of the vote, according to the most recent Hungarian polls. However far behind three parties are vying for second place: the radical right Jobbik  is due to win around 10%/11%, like the the Socialists of the MSZP and the centre left Democratic Coalition. Finally, the progressives of Momentum and the ecologists of LMP are due to win 5/6% of the vote.

Poll by Zavecz Research

Poll by Viewpoint

Ireland

According  to the most recent poll, the candidates of Fine Gael are ahead in voting intentions in three constituencies (Dublin : 22%, Midlands : 26% and South : 19%). Fianna Fail is credited with 13% of the vote inthe Midlands and the South and 18% in Dublin. Sinn Fein is due to win 14% of the vote in the Midlands and the South and 13% in Dublin.

Italy

According to a poll by the Demos Institute, published by Repubblica, the Lega is in the lead and is due to win 31% of the vote, followed by the 5 Stars Movement with around 25%, and then the Democratic Party with around 20%. Finally the conservatives of Forza Italia and the nationalists of the Brothers of Italy are due to win 8% and 6% of the vote respectively. This is the last poll to date since Italy prohibits the publication of polls in the two weeks preceding the elections.

Poll SWG for TG La 7

Poll Ipsos for the Corriere della Serra

Poll Piepoli for Scenaripolitici.com

Latvia

According to a poll undertaken in the week of 14th May, the National Alliance Party is due to win 17.1% of the vote. The Social Democratic Party (SDPS) is credited with 14.3%. The New Conservative Party (JKP), the Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS) and the Party for Development/For! (AP) are running at around 9.5% to 10% of the vote.

Lithuania

According to a poll by Baltic Research for the newspaper Lietuvos rytas, published on 16th May, the parties – the Union of Greens and Farmers and the Patriotic Union  – Lithuanian Christian Democrats are due to come out ahead in the European elections with respectively  21.1% and 20.5% in terms of voting intentions. They are followed by the Lithuanian Social Democratic Party which is due to win 11.4% of the vote. The Lithuanian Centre Party and the Labour Party are due to win around 6% of the vote. All of the other parties lie around the 5% mark in terms of voting intentions.

Malta

According to a poll updated in April the daily Malta Today, the Labour Party and the Nationalist Party are credited with 44.1.%, (41.8% in April) and 29% (25.1% in April) in the voting intentions. Democratic Alternative and the Democratic Party are due to win around 1% each.

Netherlands

According to a poll published by I&O Research on 17th May, the Forum for Democracy and the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy are due to win 4 seats in Parliament. Groenlinks, Christian Democratic Appeal and the Labour Party are due to win between 2 and 4 seats and Democracy 66, 2. The Party for Animals and 50 Plus might win no seats or 1 seat each.

Poland

The right-wing populist party Law and Justice (PiS) and the European Coalition, which rallies pro-European groups from the right and the left are running neck and neck with respectively 34/39% and 33%/41.9% of the vote. In third position the Social Democrats of “Wiosna” (Spring) are credited with between 7.6% to 9.6% of the vote. Finally the populists of Kukiz’15  and the libertarians of the Korwin Confederation are running equal with respectively 4.8%/6%) and 1.8% and 6%.

IBRiS Poll for Dziennik Gazeta Prawna

Institute for Research into Public Affairs for Newsweek and Radiozet.pl

Portugal

According to the most recent poll published by Publico on 16th to 19th May, the Socialist Party (PS) is said to be in the lead with 33% of the vote followed by the Social Democratic Party (PSD) with 23% and the Left Bloc 9%. The United Democratic Coalition (CDU) and the CDS-People’s Party are due to win 8% of the vote each. The Animal Party (PAN) and the Alliance Party are due to each win 3%.

Romania

According to the latest IMAS Poll for Europa FM, the National Liberal Party (PNL)  is due to win between 28.5% in the voting intentions, followed by the Social Democratic Party (PSD). The Alliance 2020 USR-PLUS is due to come third with 19.6%. Finally the ALDE and Pro-Romania Party are running neck and neck with respectively around 9.8% and 9.9%. The People’s Movement Party (PMP) is due to win 6.2% of the vote.

 

Slovakia

According to a  poll undertaken at the beginning of May by the Phoenix Research agency, SMER-SD is said to be in the lead in terms of voting intentions (22.5%), followed by the Party of Freedom and Solidarity (SaS) (14,3%). The parties OL’aNO and L’S NS  are running neck and neck with respectively 13.9% and 13.8% of the voting intentions. They are followed by Sme Rodina (12.3%), PS/Spolu (11.8%), KDH (9.9%), SNS (8.1%), Doprava (5.2%) and Most-Hid (5%).

Slovenia

A Ninamedia poll published on 19th May for Dnevnik, RTV Slovenia and Večer places the coalition  formed by the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) and the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS) ahead in the voting intentions with 18,9%, followed closely by the Social Democrats who are credited with 18.3%. The Marjan Šarc List (LMS) is due to win between 9.7 et 12.2% of the vote. The New Slovenia Party (NSi) is due to win 7.6% of the vote, the Democratic Party of Slovenian Pensioners (DeSUS) 6.8% and the Left (Levica) 5.8%.

Spain

According to the poll by Sigma Dos for El Mundo on 20th May, the Socialist Party is due to win between 18 to 20 seats, the People’s Party between 9 and 10 and Ciudadanos between 9 and 10. The radical left party Unidos Podemos is due to win 6 seats. The far right Vox is due to win 5 seats and the left coalition Ahoras Republicas 3. Finally Junts per Catalunya and Coalicion por una Europa solidaria are due to win one seat each.

Sweden

According to the most recent polls undertaken in May, the Swedish Social Democratic Workers’ Party is due to come out ahead with 25.2%  of the vote. The Sweden Democrats (SD) as well as the Moderate Assembly Party (M) are due to win between 16.5% and 19.5% of the vote. Finally, Christian Democracy (KD) and the Greens are wavering between 9% and 10% of the vote, followed by the Left Party with 9.4% – 9.6%. The Centre Party (C) is due to win between 9.4% and 9.6% of the vote.

Sondage TV4 Nyheterna  (ponderation of 5 different polls) by the University of Göteborg published on 7th May

Opinion poll by SvD / Sifo published on 16th May

UK

According to the most recent polls Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party is due to come out ahead with between 33% and 35% of the vote. The LibDems are due to win between 16 and 17.3% of the vote. Labour is wavering between 15% and 16%, the Greens between 9 and 10%. The Conservative Party is due to win between 8.3% and 9%. The Change UK party -The Independent Group 5% and UKIP 3%.

YouGov Poll

European Council on Foreign Relations Poll 20th May